On Wednesday, Jerome Powell’s speech following the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting provided a more “dovish” than expected message. While Powell did note that progress on inflation has been lackluster, the announcement of the reversal of “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) excited the bulls.
Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities”
Of course, the reversal of QT means a buyer of Treasury bonds is returning to the market, which will increase overall market liquidity. It also means the Treasury will issue $105 billion less in gross in Q3. The bond market also got the memo as the return of the Fed to the bond suggests lower yields in the months ahead, easing financing pressures in the economy
For now, continue to remain predominately weighted in US Large Cap (S&P 500) markets. Money flows, due to passive investing, will continue to keep those stocks elevated.
As we get further into the New Year, we will be able to better recognize where money and allocations are rotating to and make further recommendations for there.
If you are close to retirement or are concerned about a pickup in volatility, there is nothing wrong with being very underweight equities. It is better to be safe than to give up dreams of retirement to rebuild lost wealth.
On Wednesday, Jerome Powell’s speech following the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting provided a more “dovish” than expected message. While Powell did note that progress on inflation has been lackluster, the announcement of the reversal of “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) excited the bulls.
Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities”
Of course, the reversal of QT means a buyer of Treasury bonds is returning to the market, which will increase overall market liquidity. It also means the Treasury will issue $105 billion less in gross in Q3. The bond market also got the memo as the return of the Fed to the bond suggests lower yields in the months ahead, easing financing pressures in the economy
For now, continue to remain predominately weighted in US Large Cap (S&P 500) markets. Money flows, due to passive investing, will continue to keep those stocks elevated.
As we get further into the New Year, we will be able to better recognize where money and allocations are rotating to and make further recommendations for there.
If you are close to retirement or are concerned about a pickup in volatility, there is nothing wrong with being very underweight equities. It is better to be safe than to give up dreams of retirement to rebuild lost wealth.