Real Investment Advice

Valuations across semiconductors and hyperscaler capex are pricing in 2028 revenue today. SOXX has reached parabolic levels last seen at prior cycle peaks — Nasdaq 2000, semis 2018, semis 2021. The question isn’t whether AI is real; it’s whether $60 billion-per-year promises to Oracle from companies that don’t yet earn that revenue can be sustained without a meaningful correction.

Our weekly Bull Bear Report tracks the semiconductor breadth, capex commitments, and the option-implied tail risk. We don’t predict tops — we measure when the trade gets crowded enough that the risk/reward turns.

The latest FOMC projections show three camps. Doves favor further cuts to insulate the labor market. Hawks see a re-acceleration of services inflation and want to hold. The middle warns that easing into elevated equity valuations would be a textbook policy error.

Bond market pricing currently reflects ~1.4 cuts over the next 12 months — below the SEP median. That gap is where opportunity lives. See our same-day FOMC reaction note for the full dot plot interpretation.

Asset allocation always depends on age, time horizon, and risk tolerance. But the current environment — equity valuations 18% above the 10-year forward P/E average, stable bond yields above 4%, and elevated geopolitical tail risk — argues for keeping bonds as the primary portfolio stabilizer rather than chasing alternatives.

Our free Retirement Income E-Guide walks through the framework. Richard Rosso, CFP, also publishes a recommended reading list each January for investors building literacy in this space.

The 200-day moving average is the rolling 200-trading-day mean closing price of an index. For the S&P 500, it currently sits at 6,612. The index is roughly 3.55% above this level.

Historically, sustained breaks below the 200-DMA have demarcated bullish from bearish market regimes. RIA’s internal research on the post-breakdown record — an 87% win rate at six months, average return +14%, average max drawdown −16.5% — informs how we size positions when the trend line is tested.

Gold at $3,142 reflects two things: real demand from central banks diversifying reserves, and a reflexivity loop where rising prices drive more buying. The 1970s analog — gold as a stagflation hedge — doesn’t transfer cleanly because the macro setup is fundamentally different. Today’s debt levels make any sustained Fed inflation tolerance much costlier.

Gold can be a tactical position. It is not, in our view, the structural portfolio stabilizer some commentary suggests. See our long-form piece on the commodity supercycle thesis for the full argument.

Private credit refers to direct lending from non-bank investors to mid-market companies, typically at floating rates and through funds managed by firms like Blackstone, Blue Owl, Apollo, and BlackRock. The asset class has grown from $500B to over $1.7T in a decade.

The stress isn’t yet visible in marks — private credit is held at cost, with quarterly fair-value adjustments rather than daily marks. But the public credit signal (BDC discounts, secondary market pricing) is widening. RIA’s private credit coverage tracks the indicators that matter.

Lance Roberts is the Chief Investment Strategist for RIA Advisors, a registered investment advisory firm based in Houston, Texas. He is the lead editor of the Real Investment Report, a weekly newsletter distributed to over 100,000 subscribers, and host of The Real Investment Show podcast. He has 35+ years of experience managing portfolios through the 1987, 1999, 2008, and 2020 cycles.

RIA Advisors manages approximately $1.5 billion in client assets, focused on high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Real Investment Advice is the firm’s editorial platform — the analysis driving the same portfolio decisions for client money.